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| Battle for Albany: The Insider and Outsider Strategies Emerge |
By: Aaron E. Wicks
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Posted: Sunday, January 24, 2010 7:36 pm
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Rochester, NY (January 25, 2010) -- Are Rochester's answer to Albany's "Three men in a room" secretly plotting to install County Legislator Harry Bronson as the Democratic candidate in the 131st Assembly District? If so, where would this leave the efforts of other potential candidates -- especially those who may have not yet even begun their campaign? In the world of power politics, you simply cannot be caught napping: those with inside knowledge use that knowledge skillfully. In this case, though, local Democrats might be about to overplay their hand -- and that could result in the 131st actually ending up in Republican hands.
The Insider Scenario: Making the Election "Special"
Close observers of Rochester's political scene this week might have noticed something very subtle: Assemblymember Susan John announced she would not seek re-election, but did not specify why. She is under no obligation to do so, of course, but a 20-year veteran legislator will generally offer an explanation of their thinking, particularly one with a few good years left in her. Oddly, John said her rationale would be disclosed soon. Why the delay?
Here is one possible explanation. Suppose John has concluded she is tired of the Albany grind and particularly the cross-pressure over mayoral control. She is close to Mayor Duffy politically, but has also received generous support from labor -- some of whom oppose mayoral control. John looks for an exit. Usually this comes in the form of patronage, but this is not a good year for patronage at the state level with the state's finances in the tank and the current governor in serious jeopardy of ceasing to be such one year from now.
One place patronage is alive and well: Rochester. The Duffy machine has already found a home for one displaced loyalist (Molly Clifford) -- with Susan John abandoning ship, look for an opportunity "arranged" by the Duffy crowd, either as a formal part of the city or, more likely, as a new hire with a Duffy ally in the private sector.
John's decision to leave raises an interesting possibility: what if she resigned instead of simply retiring at the end of her term? If she resigns within the next few weeks, there will be sufficient time for Governor David Paterson to call a special election. Under New York State election law, special elections do not allow for primaries; the candidates are chosen by the local parties under local party rules. In other words, the Democratic party insiders could pull together the relevant committee leaders and anoint a candidate for a special election. If that were to happen, there are two leading candidates: Carla Palumbo and Harry Bronson. A betting man might put his money on Bronson getting the nod given his long-standing connection to John and his current position in the party hierarchy.
The timeline would then go something like this: Special Election in or around May, primary in September and general election in November. Note that an early special election would -- in theory -- clear the primary field for Bronson (assuming he is the chosen one): "loyal" Democrats would be persuaded to abandon the designation process as Bronson will be the party's candidate in the special election and it would be untoward to challenge him while he's actively running for office.
In theory, that would work well for the party's leaders. Bronson would get a clear field for the primary and, if he wins the special, a leg-up in the general election race, where he could run as the incumbent. The irony of such a strategy is that the party would have to rely on a loyalty argument to prevent challenges to Bronson. And yet it was Bronson himself who publicly committed to abandon the party's nominee if his preferred candidate did not win a primary (the 21st LD primary in 2009). So much for party loyalty (or perhaps it is only required of some Democrats and not of others).
Can this work? It has worked before in various forms. In 2007, as Jim Bowers was gearing up to run in the Northeast City Council District, incumbent Ben Douglas abruptly opted to resign immediately rather than serve out his term (a resignation that many observers believe was tied to pressure from party insiders). Council had the authority to name a replacement, and they chose Lovely Warren, herself a candidate for the office. Although Warren was already a strong candidate for the seat, her ability to gain te imprimatur of being an incumbent provided an extra boost. She went on to defeat Bowers by nearly 3 to 1 in September (disclosure: this was one of several campaign management losses for this author, working this time for the Bowers campaign).
In 2010, such a strategy will be unlikely to work so flawlessly as it did in 2007. Candidates like Willa Powell and potentially Malik Evans, have shown enough independence to run regardless of party insiders' wishes. But the bigger threat is the chance that Bronson could lose the special election. This would then put the seat in Republican hands heading into November and throw the Democratic primary into some disarray. Voters would see the party leadership as having screwed up once -- why give them another crack at it?
If this strategy is to play out, things will happen quickly. Keep an eye on Susan John's rationale for leaving and watch to see if she steps down early. If that happens, Rochester will have its own political Olympiad in February
The Outsider Strategy: Preston Appeals to Grassroots for Challengers
Recently, local political activist Ken Preston sent out an appeal to some of his political allies. In that appeal (reproduced in its entirety below), Preston called for all interested candidates for office to come forward and participate in a grassroots candidate selection process. Preston, a local organizer for the Obama presidential campaign in 2008 and a health policy advocate, is proposing that an open, competitive process be used to encourage candidates to run and then to select candidates to receive the support of grassroots activists (who, incidentally, led Obama to victory in the local Presidential primary in February 2008).
One might fairly ask: isn't such a process duplicative? The party has exactly such a process, called the designation process. Under that system, candidates present to the party committees, the committees vote and the party designates the candidates that will receive the support of the party's committee members. The difference, however, is that many rank-and-file Democrats who have experienced the party's designation process have seen it be less than responsive to party members' wishes. Some committees (such as LD22) strain the English language definition of being "democratic". Others have been shown to be led by leaders who are unresponsive to members' preferences. If multiple candidates compete for the party's designation and none achieves a majority, the vote goes to a second ballot where the committee leaders wield all the power -- and in 2009, that scenario led to the questionable designation of Commissioner Cynthia Elliott for Rochester School Board.
Preston's call for candidates is striking for two reasons: first, it is one of several recent calls by local Democrats for greater involvement by grassroots Democrats, as opposed to the top-down approach of many of the party's local leaders. in that sense, Preston's call is indicative that the revolutionary fervor among local Democrats has not died, despite the lackluster participation of Democrats in the party's city primary of 2009.
The second significant aspect of Preston's call is that it reminds Democrats of a very important principle: the fact that the party's "official" committee actually has no legal authority over candidate selection. That is, being the party's designated candidate only gets a candidate one thing (maybe): the support of party volunteers when they pass petitions in June. But if those committee members did not walk their precincts, the designation would be literally worthless -- it would not get a candidate on the ballot, and without that, running for office is much, much more difficult. On the other hand, a candidate with their own "committee" of volunteers can easily secure the signatures needed to access the ballot. While they might lack the official seal of approval from the local party, the value of that brand has been in decline for several years. A decline that might be accelerated by events of the next few months.
If Preston is successful, local Democrats could have the luxury of multiple candidates from which to choose. Even better, voters will finally be able to hear their incumbent legislators defend the last 20 or 30 years in Albany. Should Monroe County Assemblymembers Stephen Hawley, Bill Reilich, David Koon, Joe Errigo, David Gantt and Joe Morelle be re-elected? What about Senators George Maziarz, Joe Robach, Michael Nozzolio and Jim Alesi? Will voters value the 100+ years of legislative expertise these men have provided Monroe County or will they instead demand fresh faces to take on our intransigent capital?
Elections are meant to be competitive and open to all comers. In 2010, voters across Monroe County might have the chance to take a different direction. What remains to be seen is whether the current leaders will have the wisdom to get out of their own way and let it happen.
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[Text of email from Ken Preston]
From: Ken Preston
Date: Friday, January 22, 2010
Subject: A Grassroots call to action -- seeking Democratic candidates to run for New York State Legislature
Hello all. If you have ever considered running for the New York State Legislature, 2010 is your time.
As residents of New York State we all know how bad our state government is. Frankly it's not working for most of it's citizens. Especially those who live in western NY.
So here is a way that you can fix/change the raw deal we all are receiving. Run for the New York State Legislature this year.
I am ready to roll up my selves again to organize campaigns to win seats in the New York State Legislature.
After two years on the Obama campaign and one year fighting/organizing for health insurance reform. I know that with reform minded and truly dedicated candidates we can change Albany so that it works for ALL New York State resident's.
To those who may not know, The Obama grassroots campaign in the greater Rochester area was ALL locally financed. We did not receive ANY funds from the Obama Chicago National HQ. We were a true grassroots campaign!!!
I have put together a very small committee of advisers to help with the gathering and interviewing of potential candidates.
If you have ever thought about running for the New York State Legislature and you are a registered Democrat.
We want to hear from you.
Please know that we are looking for candidates who are willing to run in a truly grassroots fashion, able to fund raise, devote countless hours to running, be focused on winning and most important be in this to change the way Albany works for our region of New York State.
Please also know that if you are married or have a special person in your life and perhaps even children. You MUST first discuss this idea with them. If they don't buy into this potential run. Our committee will not consider you as a candidate.
We believe that in 2010 there will be a great cry from the citizens in our region to change the way Albany works for us and that there is no better time than now to change our destiny.
So again if you want to run for the New York State Legislature and you feel you meet the requirements listed above, please contact me ASAP.
To our grassroots volunteers and supporters. If we are successful in securing candidates. We will need a grassroots effort like no other here in Rochester, NY.
Although campaign funds will be needed. We believe that the will of the people in our region for change will be much stronger than the purse strings of the status quo. Money will NOT determine the winners this time out. running smarter campaigns will.
We will also need your time, spirit, small and large donations and most of all your energy to win!!!
Here is who we want:
Great candidates whose heart's are in the right place to fight for change, candidates who will fight to better our lives by changing the way Albany is working for us here in western NYS.
This is who we are looking for. This is your time to step up!!!
Join us to change NYS government!!!!
Ken Preston
Grassroots organizer and health care advocate
Rochester, NY
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