Rochester's Deck of Political Cards in for a Major Shuffle in 2010
By: Aaron E. Wicks
Posted: Thursday, March 4, 2010 11:11 pm
Los Angeles, CA (March 4, 2010) -- If voters in the Rochester area feel disconnected from politics and believe that their votes do not matter, 2010 may be the area's last chance to change that perception. With critical elections to the state legislature and governor, voters will determine not only who controls the levers of power in Albany but also how electoral lines are drawn for the next ten years. And with control of Congress in play nationally, some local races (specifically, the 29th Congressional District) will be main battlegrounds. If voters choose to sit out these races, there is little hope they will ever see another chance to have such a large impact.
What is at stake in 2010? The stakes just got much bigger....(in no particular order)
1.NY Governor
In a normal election year, NY Governor would be significant enough, but this year is not at all normal. The governor will succeed a four year period of near-rudderless governance of the state. After the Spitzer resignation and the gradual unraveling of Gov. David Paterson's gubernatorship (which could come to a premature end through resignation, as many are demanding), New Yorkers are thirsty for leadership. Yet unlike past years, New York's next governor will not have the usual resources to make his or her mark. He/she will face a budget balanced precariously on one-time savings, cuts to services and, likely, tax increases -- in the highest taxed state in the nation. The next governor will please no one. The question is: will he/she at least make responsible decisions that will secure the state's future or will the state continue to fall off a fiscal cliff, indebting generations to come because the current generation refused to responsibly manage its finances?
2. NY State Senate
Although it seems long ago, it was only within the past year that New York underwent the farce of having a State Senate with no clear majority. And now that Democrats have evicted one of their own from that body, they cannot currently guarantee a majority on the floor (though they still maintain operational control through their plurality relative to Republicans). Here in the Rochester area, Democrats would love to gain ground by knocking off either Sen. Joseph Robach or Sen. Jim Alesi, the latter also the subject of intense lobbying to perform a party switch (a possibility that is still in the offing). But Democrats have struggled to field the right candidates and, in the case of Robach, have seen their window of opportunity shrink with each passing election. Still, with the Senate majority in question and few seats of for grabs, the local stakes are likely to be as high as they have ever been.
3. NY State Assembly -- the 131st District No one would wager that the Assembly will fall into Republican hands in 2010, so control is not on the table. But with the retirement of Assemblymember Susan John, a local seat has opened up for the first time in years. As has been written previously, the leading candidate is County Legislator Harry Bronson. "Leading" only in the sense that he appears to have wide support among party insiders -- whether that support translates to popular support is an entirely separate question. Some insiders have postulated that John might abruptly resign her seat (rather than simply serve out her term and retire at the end of it), triggering a special election which would clear the field for Bronson. If timed properly, it could create the situation where a special election could be held around the same time candidates are securing petition signatures for a September primary. This would put enormous pressure on local Dems to stand down and allow the party's candidate (presumably Bronson) a clear shot at the seat. If that situation does not play out (or even if it does), it appears that School Board member Willa Powell is a certain candidate and that fellow Board member (and Board President) Malik Evans is also seriously considering a run.
The consequences of this race could be significant. If Bronson runs and wins, it will create a vacancy in the 24th LD, requiring the party's legislative caucus to select a replacement. Democratic party leaders already have a bruised reputation among party activists -- some of the events of the 2010 designation season, as well as the mayoral control issue -- could make it difficult for the party to coalesce around an appointee that has legitimacy. Filling the 24th could become a headache for the party and could lead to a bloody primary down the road.
But even if Bronson runs and loses, there could still be tremors from the contest in the 131st. If the special election scenario described above plays out, it could create an uprising within the rank and file of the party. If it does not, there still could be a very competitive primary for the seat on the Democratic side -- one that Bronson is not a lock to win, given the demographics and voting history of the district. More concerning for Democrats, there is a very real chance that they could lose the 131st in November. If that happens, recriminations will follow for sure.
4. Vacancy in the 29th Congressional Diatrict Rep. Eric Massa's surprise announcement that he would retire after only one term in office has created an unexpected competition for a seat that was already expected to be a tough defense for Democrats. Republican Mayor of Corning Tom Reed is already in and has a substantial head start in fundraising. But now that the race is likely to be easier (with no incumbent running), other Republicans may jump in, notably Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks.
Why Maggie Brooks would consider this race is a subject of some puzzlement. Many pols find the transition from an executive to a legislative office to be unsatisfying -- you no longer direct, you compromise and coalition-build. If Brooks thought Renaissance Square was an exhausting effort, she'll find the work of legislating in Congress to be even more daunting. Add to that the fact that she will either be in a legislative minority or in a small majority as a moderate. While this would put her in a pivotal position in terms of floor votes, it will also mean constant pressure by the right wing to adjust her votes and positions to be more consistent with national Republican priorities. Such a migration for Brooks would not sit well with local voters (recall that Barack Obama actually won a majority in not only Monroe County, but in the non-city suburbs as well). Finally, a Brooks candidacy, if successful, would create a power vacuum in the local Republican party. Brooks is their unquestioned leader. Without her heading the ticket, there will be some handwringing as to who will best succeed her. And remember this, Bill Reilich (Monroe County GOP chair) is no Steve Minarik.
If Brooks leaves and wins the 29th, the opening for Mayor Robert Duffy to move into her position would grow significantly. Were Duffy to seriously entertain such a thought, machinations would instantly begin to succeed him as mayor. That would set off a three-way factional battle within the city's Democrats between forces loyal to Duffy, Assemblymember David Gantt and non-aligned Democrats. Even though this is only a remote possibility at this moment, one that depends on several things to happen, do not doubt for a moment that all three groups are not already engaging in their planning.
5. Challenges to Assemblymembers?
Although it has only been the subject of talk and speculation to this point, there is still the real possibility that one or more local Assemblymember could face a serious electoral challenge -- an uncommon phenomenon for most Assemblymembers. And in a year when voters are agitated and New York's budget woes are worse than ever, the moment is right for just such challenges. Whether they have any chance of being successful depends on many factors, not the least of which is the recruitment of actual, credible candidates. Thus far, no names have emerged. But within the next month or two, candidates will have to step forward. When they do, their ability to mobilize supporters to gather nominating petition signatures and to attract credible funding will provide a glimpse of the future.
What is the purpose of all this speculation? Is it pointless wondering by a political junkie? Is it insider thinking that has no substantive significance? Perhaps. But it also critical to recognize that scenarios such as these are real possibilities, that they are being considered by real people who have real resources in the political arena. If voters are going to play a part in local races, the time to act is not November, it is now. Now is the time to encourage that neighbor to run for office or to volunteer with a prospective candidate. Now is the time when someone with little experience in politics can get involved and see the process play out and be a part of the result. The biggest error that most people make is in believing that elections are the only times when action is required. But as one can see from the above, elections are only a final ratification of a much more complicated process.
Anyone disgusted with New York's finances, mayoral control, sweetheart political patronage in the city or other political chicanery need to get involved right now. By September, it could be too late. And by November, well, most of these political insiders will already have their sights on 2011 and beyond.
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By: raufester on 3/6/10
It's odd that nobody is mentioning newcomer Ken Kraus' candidacy for the 131st assembly district on the Republican ticket. Since the mood is against incumbents, it might be worth mentioning that a newcomer could stir up things for the Democrats vying for that position, all professional politicians who have made this area such a mess, and like termites, hoping to spread their excremental taint across the state.
Andreas Rau Rochester, New York
By: Keukasmallie on 3/8/10
Vote 'em all out! Do not vote in favor of ANY incumbent; if they're running unopposed, write in the words "Fix Government." It's time to tell ALL elected officials that we simply won't accept business as usual in government. Keep turning them out until the light bulb of public wants and needs glows for our elected officials.
