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| Should She or Shouldn't She? Is Maggie Brooks "Right" for the 29th CD? |
By: Aaron E. Wicks
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Posted: Saturday, March 6, 2010 8:39 pm
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Will Southern Tier resdents be represented by someone in Webster?
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Rochester, NY (March 7, 2010) -- If there is a smoke-filled room in County Executive Maggie Brooks' Webster home, there are likely some interesting scenarios being discussed there. The recent opening of the 29th Congressional District (due to Rep. Eric Massa's retirement, then resignation), presents some intriguing possibilities -- but also some risks for both Brooks and the local GOP. In a topsy-turvy election year such as this, it is difficult to predict the future, but here are just a few variables involved in the battle for NY-29:
1. The residency issue
Technically, a non-issue, in legal terms. Although Brooks resides in Webster, there is no requirement that a member of Congress live in the district they represent. The US Constitution only requires that a Representative be at least 25 years old, a resident of the state they will be representing and a citizen of the United States. That's it. Even if New York State wanted to impose a residency requirement, it cannot.
So, in that sense, the residency issue is a non-issue. But while it is not a legal barrier for Brooks, it is certainly a practical issue for some voters. It was not that long ago that the 29th District was represented by Amo Houghton, heir to the Corning family fortune and all-around good guy. If Southern Tier residents had voting power at the Vatican, Houghton would be on a fast-track to sainthood. One can imagine what it has been like for residents to go from Houghton, to Randy Kuhl (a Hammondsport resident, but not nearly the decent man that Houghton is) and then Eric Massa, the abrasive Representative who has admitted being more than just abrasive to staff. After this sequence, it is easy to imagine how Brooks' residency might pose a question for Southern Tier voters -- especially with Corning Mayor Tom Reed in the race.
2. The Reed issue
Congress has seen a Tom Reed before. In the 1880's and 1890's, Maine sent a man named Thomas Brackett Reed to the House. Reed was a master parliamentarian, catholic in his worldview h studied French ad even kept parts of his personal journal in French) and reached the pinnacle of House power: Speaker of the House. Reed left the Speakership and the House when his former colleague and friend, Bill McKinley (now President) sought approval for war -- something to which Reed refused to be a party.
Enter the 21st Century Tom Reed. A lifelong resident of Corning, he went to school at Alfred University, law school in Ohio, a brief stint practicing law here in Rochester before settling down to a law practice and real estate brokerage business in Corning. Reed's resume and biography read like a Capra script for the 2010 election: a family man, newcomer to politics and someone with deep, long roots in his community wants to bring those hometown values to Washington. Reed has the enthusiastic endorsement of former Rep. Amo Houghton who is quoted on Reed's website as saying "I could go on forever (about Tom)... The 29th Congressional District is an extraordinary place, requiring someone who is decent, and honest, and we can be proud of. Tom is that kind of man.”
More damning for Maggie Brooks, one of Reed's endorsements is from a County Executive named... Maggie Brooks. On June 25, 2009, Brooks wrote to Reed, saying "I am pleased to grant you my personal endorsement of your candidacy for Congress, to represent New York's 29th Congressional District." Should Brooks decide to run against Reed, it will be interesting to see how she handles the withdrawl of her endorsement. Although one could concoct a story to cover such an event, the real explanation would be this: "I endorsed you back in 2009 when it didn't seem like a good idea to run. Now that this race is much more winnable, I think I can win, so I'm taking back my endorsement of you." That's politics -- but isi it what voters want in 2010?
3. The money issue
Despite Brooks' demonstrated proficiency fundraising, Reed actually has the upper hand at this point. Reed has already amassed $230,000 as of the last quarterly campaign finance filing covering activity through December 31, 2009. Presumably, Reed's fundraising efforts have continued over the past two months -- particularly as Obama's poll ratings have slipped and Republicans' opposition to, well, everything, has inspired their base.
On the other side of the ledger, Brooks is unable to apply her copious campaign warchest to this race because those funds were raised for a non-federal race and it is not legal to apply them to this contest. No one doubts Brooks' ability to quickly scare up a couple of hundred thousand dollars, but donors might be wise to ask "Why should I give you money when Reed is already working with a competitive warchest -- why don't I give my dollars to Republican challengers in other races instead?" Republicans tend to be more strategic in their giving than Democrats. If Brooks is going to make this a race, she will need to figure out how redirect Republican funds from Reed to her.
The most likely tack will be to argue viability. Brooks could argue -- quite plausibly -- that she has demonstrated far more electoral strength than Reed. She has twice been elected County Executive and has been tested as both a candidate and a fundraiser. Reed has run one election for a much smaller, less diverse constituency. She is known throughout the Rochester media market, he has a much lower profile. This type of pitch will work with local Monroe County donors who will see Reed as lacking the credentials of Brooks. If it works for more strategic donors at the national level, Reed could be in trouble. If his money begins to dry up, his campaign will stutter and Brooks force him out.
4. The primary vs. special election issue
Republicans hate primaries -- unless there is someone deemed too moderate in the race (just ask Dede Scozzafava). Primaries can be unpredictable, and to a party, they can appear wasteful, directing resources in multiple directions rather than marshalling them behind one candidate. In a perfect world, Republicans (and Democrats, though they are less able to enforce this principle) avoid primary fights. The 29th CD is the perfect case in point: a primary would drain Republican resources in a year when they could make significant inroads.
Complicating things in the 29th is the fact that there may also be a special election. Depending on Gov. David Paterson's actions, voters in the 29th could face a special election in the spring/early summer, a primary in September and a general election in November. Massa's decision to resign, rather than simply retire, becomes a very interesting one. By resigning, he opens up the possibility for the special election -- an election in which the candidates are chosen by the county chairs of the 8 counties that comprise the district. In other words, despite Reed's existing campaign, Republican leaders in the district could cast their votes for Brooks. With her as the GOP candidate in the special election, the Reed candidacy begins to look like a nuisance candidacy -- one that will confuse voters and harm the GOP's chances for a much-needed pickup in New York.
As of March 5th, when Reed announced that former Congressman Bill Paxon joined his campaign as honorary co-chair, the Reed campaign continues. But if those 8 Republican chairs abandon Reed and support Brooks, the road becomes rockier. Brooks' decision to run or not to run will really come down to those 8 people. If they are behind her, she will be able to run with the wind at her back (though still not necessarily a cakewalk). If they decline, or demur, or if there is no special election -- something Paterson could do by delaying his declaration of the seat as officially "vacant" -- Brooks will have a much more difficult go of it. The Republican Chair of Schuyler County is a virtual Congressional kingmaker.
5. The future of Monroe County
No politician should ever consider him/herself to be indispensable. But for Monroe County Republicans, Maggie Brooks is pretty close. She is likable, confident, well known (think about how many voters have lived in Monroe County long enough to remember her career as a news anchor) and has a reputation for being non-ideological in her approach to governing the county (not a reputation unanimously agreed to, but one widely held in the public).
What would the Monroe County GOP do without Brooks heading the County? Who is her logical successor? At the moment, there is only one person who could win countywide with the same appeal as Brooks. Unfortunately, he is not Republican -- he is Rochester Mayor Robert Duffy. The moment Brooks makes her first trip to Steuben County, the moving trucks will be plotting routes between Church St. and West Main St.
The next County Executive race is in 2011. Assuming something strange does not taint Duffy (even if he loses the mayoral control fight, he will become a hero to suburban voters who don't stand to lose their voting rights), he will be the most formidable challenger for the office. What Republican would take him on? The fact is that a Brooks candidacy for the 29th CD might be good for Brooks but it would cause a major problem for Republicans in Monroe County.
6. The future of the 29th CD
The reality is that this might be the last election ever in NY-29. In 2012, candidates will run in newly-drawn districts. With New York State slated to lose a seat, the obvious question is "who will be cut out of his/her district?" If Brooks runs and wins in NY-29, who will fight for her to keep her district? Lines will be drawn by a joint Assembly-Senate Commitee. And while it is bipartisan in structure, it is also highly deferential to both party's incumbents. Upstate Republicans have virtually no influence in the process, and very little incentive to protect a freshman like Brooks when they already will have to work hard to protect Chris Lee's district between Rochester and Buffalo. If Brooks runs and wins, she will immediately have to begin fundraising for the 2012 race in a district she cannot yet foresee. In that sense, taking the lunge in 2010 is akin to jumping off a cliff. There is a known race in 2010, but 2012 is shrouded in darkness below.
Will she or won't she?
Brooks will need to assess these types of arguments -- as well as others, such as the impact on her family and her own personal ambition -- before she decides whether to enter the race. Given what her departure could do to the County GOP and the uncertain future of the district, Brooks would be wise to pass on NY29. Brooks will have other opportunities in the not-too-distant future: the Slaughter seat will come up soon (she can't live forever) and New York State's financial mess could make the Cuomo governorship a one-term phenomenon. And if these opportunities do not come about quickly enough, it is almost certain that someone can find a job for Brooks at the Water Authority....
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Member Opinions:
By: Hockeyfan on 3/8/10
Maggie should sit this one out. She was fine as County Clerk, but has been underwhelming as County Exec. As someone who doesn't reside in the 29th Congressional District, her pursuit of the open seat looks "piggish". Corning's Tom Reid or Assemblyman Brian Kolb are much more credible candidates. Charles Walker Rochester, New York
By: wny131 on 3/14/10
We now know that Maggie isn't running. Why does the media and the establishment always look at the same birds in the same cage when we need to fill a seat? How about some new birds? Bruce Quimby Rochester, New York
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