Rochester, NY (March 15, 2010) -- It is often observed that the Chinese word for crisis is based on two separate characters: one meaning "danger", the other meaning "opportunity" (though linguists have debunked this interpretation). Pity that it is untrue, because if it were, one could describe local Republicans as being in the midst of a crisis. Not a crisis that requires immediate action, but one of near-term and longer-term threats to the party's viability. Although politics is fluid and the multiple variables in this equation can lead to a wide range of outcomes, party leaders would do well to consider how the future of the local party squares with the direction of the state and the national Republican Party.
Why the skepticism? Part of the story has to do with the important role of Progressive ambition in politics, part of the story is the local scene and what it will look like within the next year or two.
With respect to progressive ambition (the idea that political actors are often driven by a desire for higher and higher office), consider the birth of the national Republican party in the 1850's. Within just four years the party assumed functional control of the US House and within six years elected the first Republican President, Abraham Lincoln. A major explanation for the rise of the Republican party at that time was that the existing alternative -- the Whig Party -- had become hopelessly factionalized and regionalized. Southern Whigs and Northern Whigs had little in common. Whigs in the West seized the initiative, founded a new party that took off and other like-minded Whigs in both North and South saw that this new party was becoming a force. If they wanted to be in the game, they had to join, and join they did. Thus, it was the calculations of individual politicians, looking at their own career prospects as public servants that led many to abandon one party for another, en masse.
Consider this principle in viewing the following triumphs/challenges, because local Republicans looking to make a long-term impact in politics may find that the GOP of today offers limited opportunities for them tomorrow.
Example #1: Irondequoit Ascendance or Brief Interregnum?
The election of Mary Joyce D'Aurizio and two new Republican members to the Town Council in 2009 was one of the few surprises last year. Although D'Aurizio proved to be a stronger candidate than Democrats assumed, she also benefited from a an internal war within the Democratic Party in Irondequoit, taking the form of a bitter primary between incumbent Supervisor Mary Ellen Heyman and insurgent Bob Ament.
Republicans should think twice about whether Irondequoit is a triumph or merely a lucky break. Demographics show the town's population growth has plateaued (in fact, it has declined slightly from 52,000 in 2000 to 50,000 in 2008), it's non-white population has doubled (from about 5% in 2000 to over 11% in 2008) and median household income has note kept pace with inflation. While hardly a Democratic lock, the town's trends are almost universally moving in a direction that benefits Republicans.
Further threatening the GOP's long-term chances is the future of Medley Center. It appears unlikely that the Congel family will maintain its commitment to the PILOT agreement with the town and the Irondequoit school district. This would almost certainly lead to the pulling of the plug on the major development plans for Irondequoit's biggest commercial question mark. If the GOP cannot demonstrate their effectiveness at promoting growth, it seriously undermines their argument for governing. And aspiring Republicans in Irondequoit, seeing the writing on the wall, will wonder if the party label will be a blessing or a curse when they run for office in the future.
Example #2: Redemption in NY-29 or Transitional Representation?
The resignation of Eric Massa has opened up what is looking more and more like a certain takeover for the GOP. With a well-funded, committed and apparently solid candidate (no signs of scandals, incompetence or ideological extremism), Republicans have reason to celebrate. As well they should: the party is on a roll and this seat represents a particularly satisfying failure by Democrats to retain a seat that it seemed they should never have had (it was only the lackluster qualities of former Rep. Randy Kuhl that provided Dems with the opening in the first place).
But the party also has reason to worry. First of all, as has been reported in several venues -- including this one -- Upstate NY is certain to lose at least one Congressional seat going into the 2012 elections, and the 29th is as good as any to eliminate (especially with Democrats directing the process, as they are likely to do). Second, the local GOP has to wonder if it missed a major opportunity in this district. Back in 2009, Monroe County Republicans apparently thought the district was not a likely win -- they were happy to let Corning Mayor Tom Reed tilt at the Eric Massa windmill (and no one would have predicted Massa would implode as completely as he did). But should Monroe County GOP leaders have written off the seat so readily? Perhaps many members felt that they had better chances in races closer to home: perhaps a challenge to Susan John in the 131st AD or opportunities to run for seats in the County Leg being vacated in 2011. Regardless, the Monroe County Republican party is now facing a 20-year drought of Congressional representation -- one that may well continue to 30 years if the 2012 district lines reinforce Democrats' dominance.
Local Republicans have always done an effective job managing their farm system -- keeping up-and-coming pols engaged , providing them with opportunities, but also ensuring they wait their turn and not make waves. But when opportunities like NY29 come and go, one has to think that some of those younger comers are going to seek local party leadership that will be more active in providing opportunities for them.
Example #3: Republicans control Monroe County government -- why is that a problem?
The biggest counterargument to the claim that the local GOP is in trouble can be found on Main Street in downtown Rochester. There, one can witness GOP control of the County legislature -- a one-seat majority in 2009 that has since grown with the defection of Webster legislator Carmen Gumina to the GOP column. And County Executive Maggie Brooks sailed to re-election in 2007 with only token opposition -- Democrats were gun-shy after Republicans showed they would use race-baiting, if necessary, to win the County Executive race (see the infamous "Pac Man" ad used against Mayor Bill Johnson, suggesting his consolidation proposals would spread urban plague throughout the County).
But 2011 could change everything. Despite the fact that Rochester Mayor Robert Duffy has encountered a bit more resistance than he anticipated in his bid to control Rochester's schools, the fight cannot hurt him in the suburbs (unless he were to make the reasonable proposal that schools across the county should be consolidated into one district to remedy the segregation that has played a huge role in their disparate outcomes -- political suicide). Duffy is notoriously deceitful in his public pronouncements, but reasonable observers would have to agree: if he wanted to run for County Executive in 2011, he would almost certainly win.
And here's a scenario few people are discussing, but one that is nonetheless quite real: Duffy could approach the GOP with an offer they can't refuse: he runs in 2011 for County Executive as a Republican -- keeping the County in Republican hands and throwing a monkey wrench into City politics. Duffy is a former Republican and his appeal is clearly more suited a whiter and slightly more conservative audience than is found in the city. Whither Maggie Brooks? Perhaps a position in the Water Authority, perhaps a paying job as County GOP Chair -- until a Congressional seat opens up.
This scenario -- seemingly far-fetched -- would actually solve the Monroe County GOP's biggest current problem: lack of strategic vision. Since the untimely death of Steve Minarik, the party has had a leader, but lacked leadership. Current Monroe County Chair, Assemblyman Bill Reilich has made the trains run on time, but has left many wondering, where is the County party headed? Without fresh ideas and a compelling appeal to voters, Monroe County Republican rule will be short-lived and quickly forgotten.
Example #4: The elephant in the room -- Anthony Daniele is no Sarah Palin
In a year when it appears that a Republican with a pulse could beat virtually any Democrat, Monroe County Republicans have reason to be less than joyous. The big problem facing them -- and other Republicans across the Northeast United States -- is that the national Republican Party bears little resemblance to the local one. While much of the rhetoric is the same -- talk of "real people's values", family, country, low taxes, support for small business, etc. the actual policy differences are stark.
Consider Anthony Daniele, County Legislator from Pittsford. A Republican, Daniele serves on the County Legislature's Human Services Committee and is generally known to be someone approachable by constituents of all stripes. While loyal to his party caucus, Daniele is pragmatic in his politics and moderate in his rhetoric. Were Daniele to run for national office, his conservative credentials would be immediately called into question. As a small businessperson, he is clearly one of the key elements of the Republican coalition -- but would Daniele fee at home with the national party's conservative tenor? Would he kowtow to the fringe elements of the party that claim President Barack Obama is a not a US citizen? Would he nod in agreement to Glenn Beck's silliness -- particularly Beck's insulting exhortation to reject social justice, a critical element of Christian doctrine, especiall Roman Catholic practice. One might say "these are just the lunatic fringe of the party -- they have always been there -- they aren't the majority." Perhaps -- but it was this same fringe that torpedoed Dede Scozzafava in 2009, opening a House District in New York's North Country to a Democratic win for the first time in generations.
The point is this: for local Republicans interested in state or national office, the options are going to become increasingly limited. Republicans will not control New York State politics anytime soon. And northeastern, moderate fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republicans are going to continue to be marginalized within their party. This is not a theoretical, abstract problem for the local GOP, it is a real one. Because at present, the highest office a Monroe County Republican can ever hope to hold is that of County Executive (or perhaps New York State legislator -- though serving in the minority is no picnic). If local Republicans cannot see a future for themselves in the Republican Party, they will look elsewhere for opportunities. The only thing that is saving the local GOP at present is that these ambitious Republicans have nowhere to go right now: they will not become Democrats (certainly not in 2010) and there is not (yet) a credible third party that offers opportunities. But that could change...
Conclusion: create opportunities for the farm team
If the local GOP wants to create a future, it has to build a system that provides opportunities for its "farm team" -- the younger, ambitious pols currently emerging in the party. In New York State, they need to find common issues that resonate with Downstate voters in order to break the Democratic stranglehold on the state. Doing this means taking a moderate path -- forging alliances with some unions, perhaps (as Pataki successfully did, if briefly), and developing a real commitment to racial and ethnic diversity. This would put the party on a collision course with the national party, which, despite its rhetoric and its current chair, remains disengaged from people of color and is perceived as being the redoubt of Southern white conservatives. But this is a conflict which has to happen -- and if it occurs with viable alternatives available to moderate Republicans, they can, and will, walk -- just as they did in the 1850's.
Are there any Monroe County Republicans willing to lead? 2010 might just be the year when Monroe County Republicans produce the hammer that puts a nail in the coffin of the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, if, that is, it has the courage to see opportunity in what could easily be viewed as crisis.
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